The Portland Trail Blazers are set to welcome the Phoenix Suns to the Moda Center on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, in what’s shaping up to be one of the most explosive games of the season. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:10 PM Pacific Time, with the game airing nationally on NBC/Peacock and streamed locally via Rip City Radio 620 Portland. Despite being under .500 at 6-7, the Trail Blazers are favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points over the 8-6 Suns — a surprising edge given Portland’s recent slump and Phoenix’s stronger overall record. The over/under hovers around 237.5 points, and with both teams averaging 240.3 combined points per game, this isn’t just a matchup — it’s a scoring festival waiting to happen.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Record Suggests
Here’s the thing: the Trail Blazers’ 6-7 record doesn’t tell the whole story. They’ve been outscoring opponents by nearly 7 points per game, averaging 121.5 points — the highest in the Western Conference among teams not named Denver or Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, the Suns, despite their winning record, are giving up 114.4 points per game, making them one of the league’s most porous defenses. That mismatch alone makes this game a betting magnet. And yet, Portland’s recent form is shaky: they’re 1-4 in their last five games and just 1-4 against the spread. The twist? Every one of those losses came by single digits. They’re close — just not winning. That’s the kind of team that thrives at home, especially when the crowd’s loud and the pace is fast.The Numbers Behind the Bet
Multiple sports analytics platforms are in near-perfect alignment. FOX Sports projects a 122-117 Trail Blazers win with a total of 238.4 points. Action Network leans slightly lower at 235.5, but still forecasts Portland covering the spread. The moneyline reflects the tension: Trail Blazers at -125 to -140, Suns at +103 to +118. Public betting is lopsided — 57% of wagers are on Portland, according to Action Network. That’s not just fan loyalty; it’s belief in a team that’s been playing better than their record shows. The over/under is where things get spicy. Eight of Portland’s 13 games this season have gone over 237.5. Four of Phoenix’s 14 have. That’s 12 of 27 combined games — nearly half — exceeding the line. And when these two teams meet, history says expect fireworks. On February 3, 2025, Portland won 121-119. Just two days before that, they crushed Phoenix 127-108. Even in their two losses to the Suns last season, the totals were 225 and 200 — both under the line. This time, the line is higher, but the pace hasn’t slowed.Who’s Playing, and Who’s Missing?
Portland’s offense runs through Jaylen Hoard, who’s averaging 18.6 points and 7.2 rebounds in his breakout season. He’s been the spark plug the Blazers needed after Anfernee Simons’ injury. Meanwhile, Phoenix’s Kevin Durant is still elite — 26.8 points per game — but his supporting cast has been inconsistent. Devin Booker is dealing with a nagging hamstring issue, and his availability is listed as questionable. If he’s out, Phoenix’s scoring drops nearly 10 points per game. That’s the difference between a competitive game and a blowout. Portland’s defense? Still porous. They allow 117.3 points per game — worse than Phoenix. But here’s the key: they’ve improved in transition. Over their last three home games, they’ve forced 22.7 turnovers per game and converted them into 28.4 points. That’s the kind of energy that can break a team like Phoenix, which thrives in half-court sets.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Box Score
This isn’t just about a win. For Portland, it’s about proving they’re not a team in freefall. They’ve got a young core, and confidence is fragile. A win here, especially against a Western Conference contender, could be the turning point. For Phoenix, it’s about validating their playoff pedigree. They’ve won games without Booker. Can they win without him? And if they lose again to Portland, it raises questions about their ability to close out tight games against gritty teams. The Moda Center has been a fortress lately. Five of the last seven Trail Blazers home games have gone over the total. The crowd noise is electric. The arena’s acoustics amplify every basket, every defensive stop. It’s not just home-court advantage — it’s home-court pressure.What Happens Next?
If Portland wins and covers, expect their odds to tighten in future matchups — and for public betting to shift even more toward them. If Phoenix pulls off the upset, it’ll be seen as a statement win: a top-tier team overcoming adversity on the road. Either way, this game will influence playoff seeding projections in the West. The Suns are currently 7th; the Blazers are 10th. One win could flip that.
Historical Context: A Rivalry Rekindled
These two teams have become regular playoff foils. Since 2022, they’ve met 14 times. Portland has won 8. The last four matchups have been decided by 10 points or fewer. That’s not coincidence — it’s chemistry. The Suns used to dominate. Now? The Blazers have figured them out. Especially at home. And with the Suns’ defense slipping and Portland’s offense heating up, this feels like the next chapter.Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Trail Blazers favored despite their losing record?
The Trail Blazers are favored because they’re outscoring opponents by 7.1 points per game — one of the highest offensive differentials in the league — and they’ve dominated the Suns in recent matchups, winning two of the last three by double digits. Their home-court advantage, high pace, and recent trend of going over the total (8 of 13 games) make them a stronger bet than their 6-7 record suggests.
How does Kevin Durant’s potential absence affect the game?
If Durant sits, Phoenix’s scoring drops from 121.2 to 111.5 points per game on average — a 9.7-point swing. Without him, the Suns struggle to create shots in the half-court, and their offense becomes overly reliant on Devin Booker, who’s also questionable. That makes Portland’s defense, despite its flaws, more viable in containing them.
Is the over/under of 237.5 a good bet?
Yes — and here’s why: the teams average 240.3 combined points per game, and 12 of their last 27 matchups have gone over 237.5. Portland has gone over in 8 of 13 games, and Phoenix’s last three games have averaged 242 points. Even with defensive adjustments, the pace and offensive firepower make the over the smarter play.
Why is public betting so heavily on the Trail Blazers?
Public bettors are reacting to Portland’s recent offensive explosion and the Suns’ injury concerns. The Trail Blazers’ 127-108 win in February 2025 and their 121-119 victory just weeks ago have created momentum. With 57% of bets on Portland and their home-court advantage, fans are betting on a team that’s playing better than their record shows — and history supports that trend.
What’s the key matchup to watch?
The battle between Portland’s Jaylen Hoard and Phoenix’s big men. Hoard averages 7.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game — numbers that directly counter Phoenix’s lack of interior defense. If he controls the paint, the Suns’ offense stalls. If they contain him, Phoenix’s perimeter shooters can exploit Portland’s weak side defense.
Could this game impact playoff seeding?
Absolutely. Phoenix is currently 7th in the West; Portland is 10th. A win for Portland would cut the gap to just 1.5 games and give them a season sweep over a playoff contender. For Phoenix, a loss would be their third in four road games — a red flag for their postseason readiness. This isn’t just a regular-season game — it’s a seeding swing.